Seattle Housing Market Faces Sharp Decline as Pending Sales Hit Multi-Year Lows

The West Region, which includes Seattle, recorded the steepest contraction on both timeframes: contract signings dropped 4.7% month-over-month and 7.1% year-over-year.

Regional spread

All four major U.S. regions posted monthly declines. The Northeast logged a 2.0% monthly drop and a 0.2% annual decline. The Midwest fell 0.7% month-over-month but rose 1.7% year-over-year—the only region with an annual gain. The South decreased 2.2% monthly and 3.0% annually. The West's 4.7% monthly and 7.1% annual contraction sits at the bottom of the four-region spread, with an 880-basis-point gap between its annual performance and the Midwest's gain.

The Seattle read

For the Puget Sound market, the West's 7.1% annual contraction is the data point. NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun: "The highest mortgage rates of the year hit right in the middle of summer, and that's pulling back contract signings." He added that "Home prices are at record highs so houses for sale are sitting on the market longer, and fewer buyers are bidding above the asking price than a year ago, though there are large local market variations."

The cleaner macro signal is the employment-to-contracts gap. Pending contracts are 30% below their pre-pandemic 2019 level, while payroll employment runs 5% above. Yun characterized this as "sizable pent-up demand that should be unleashed in the coming years as more supply reaches the market and affordability improves." Translated to Seattle, where inventory has accumulated and median days on market have stretched against a still-expanding payroll base, the gap signals inventory absorption rate compression: more listings per closed contract than at any post-pandemic point.

The cash segment is also resetting. Realtor.com reported that the cash share of home sales fell across 2026 compared to 2025, averaging a one-point decrease across the 50 states. Full-year 2025 closed at 31.6% all-cash, against 31.7% in 2024 and 33.2% in 2023. Year-to-date 2026 (January through April) sits at 31.4%, 0.9 percentage points below the same period in 2025. The geographic concentration remains in lower-priced and Mountain West markets: Mississippi at 47.2%, Montana at 45.9%, New Mexico at 43.8%, Missouri at 42.0%, and Florida at 41.3%.

For Puget Sound sellers, the cash-offer mechanic is inverted from the 2021–2023 cycle. Cash is no longer a bidding-war accelerant; it is a certainty tool in a market where days on market are extending. Realtor.com noted that an all-cash offer from Opendoor closes in 29 days on average, against a typical 60–85-day national timeline.

The binary

Either the employment-to-contracts gap closes through lower rates and accelerating supply turnover, or the West's annual contraction widens into the fall data. The next two NAR monthly releases will sort the two outcomes.