Seattle Home Values Drop $100K in One Month Amid Economic Shifts

The decline lands as the city prepares a 9.9% levy on households earning above $1 million, effective January 2028, and as tech employers Amazon, Google, and Microsoft trim local headcount. Inventory is sitting near a 15-year high, pending sales are falling fastest among major U.S. metros, and asking-price reductions are accelerating across price tiers.

The data points

• 9% year-over-year decline in typical home value, to $891,500, per Goyer's Urban Living newsletter (year to July).
• Roughly $100,000 in median compression within a single month.
• 65% spike in luxury listings the day after the millionaires' tax was announced, based on Northwest Multiple Listing Service data; dozens of homes priced above $2 million entered the market in the same window.
• Inventory near 15-year highs; pending home sales falling fastest in Seattle versus other U.S. cities, per Redfin.
• Mortgage rates brushing 7%, per The Seattle Times, weighing on both sides of the transaction.
• Local markdowns tracking the trend: a four-bedroom Fremont townhouse cut $40,000 in a single month after failing to attract buyers; a $2.5 million Madrona listing absorbed a $250,000 reduction over three months on market.

What's driving the move

The compression stacks three pressure points: the pending 9.9% levy on $1M-plus households, a tech workforce in contraction, and elevated mortgage rates near 7%. Goyer's framing is direct—buyers now hold materially more leverage than in recent cycles. Redfin Premier agent Chase Costello, based in the area, attributes buyer caution to layoffs, AI displacement anxiety, and job-security concerns, a sentiment echoed in the Redfin report's note that tech workers are trading up less and relocating less than in prior cycles. Seattle's median remains 111% above the national average, which keeps the absolute price tag elevated even as the trajectory softens.

Forward read

Three metrics to track over the next 60 days: (1) months of supply relative to the 15-year baseline, (2) the luxury listing cohort above $2M—any sustained unwind would signal that the tax-driven listing spike has cleared, and (3) pending sales velocity, currently the weakest in the U.S. per Redfin. Binary read: if luxury inventory thins and pending sales stabilize, the 9% annual decline narrows by Q1 2027; if supply holds near current highs and rates remain pinned near 7%, median compression continues through year-end before absorption rebalances.